TIME Person of the Year Odds and Betting Preview

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TIME Person of the Year Betting

It’s that time of the year again – pardon the pun – when TIME magazine announces its shortlist for who they think should be crowned Person of the Year. Previous winners have included Winston Churchill, Martin Luther King Jr and Mikhail Gorbachev, with Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg taking home the title in 2010.

The award is supposed to recognise the person who has had the strongest worldwide influence on everyday lives during the past 12 months. In reality, however, the award is usually dominated by Americans given that most of TIME magazine’s readership lives in the States.

In years gone past there were some extremely controversial winners – Adolf Hitler in 1938 and Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 spring to mind – but in recent times the organisers have generally stuck to honouring those who have had a positive influence on people’s lives.

Top 10 Runners and Riders

First up in the odds and huge favourite to win the coveted trophy is Steve Jobs. The ex-Apple visionary is as low as 4/6 with William Hill and a best-priced Evens with Ladbrokes. In some ways it’s hard to see beyond Jobs not taking the title considering his recent Princess Diana-esque passing and the ubiquity of Apple’s products such as the iPhone, yet in the last week or so there has been a small but growing backlash against him in the press with plenty of reports coming to the surface that he wasn’t the most pleasant of people to be around.

There’s also the argument against Jobs that TIME might be reluctant to give the award to a technology guru two years running after Zuckerberg’s win in 2010. And of course it doesn’t help Jobs’ cause that he won’t be around to give an interview to the magazine if he wins. Clearly, Jobs has a great chance of winning, but it’s far from a banker and at the prohibitive odds available we suggest steering clear of him.

Next in the betting is the Arab Youth Protestors (6/1 with William Hill) who have played such a vital part in the ongoing Arab Spring movement in the Middle East. If it’s historical impact you’re after then the Arab Youth Protestors should be a shoe-in for the award, but it’s debatable whether many TIME readers care or have even read that much about the revolutions in north Africa. With that said, 6/1 does seem quite long for a group that have had such a huge geo-political impact this year and we think they're worth a tickle at that price.

Third up in the odds at 10/1 with Ladbrokes is The 99%, a grassroots organisation that protests against social and economic equality via demonstrations such as Occupy Wall Street. The protestors’ slogan “We are the 99%” refers to the difference in wealth in the US between the wealthiest 1% and the rest of the population. Whether you support The 99% pretty much depends on your world view and as such we think it’s unlikely that TIME would honour something that might alienate a large part of their readership. Thus, avoid like the plague.

Coming in next at 16/1 with Ladbrokes is Angela Merkel, Germany’s robust Chancellor. The Teutonic politician has played a pivotal role in the Euro crisis this year – many would argue the pivotal role – and has subsequently gained many admirers worldwide. Again, though, we’re back to the US-centric nature of TIME magazine and you have to question how many of their readers actually care about the Euro or even Europe. Very little would be our guess, which makes Merkel poor value at the current odds.

Also at 16/1 with Ladbrokes is Anonymous, which isn’t as silly a category as you might first think. After all, “You”, which represented the contribution of individuals on the internet, won the competition in 2006. However, it’s unlikely TIME will repeat the same trick given “You” was widely criticised as a cop-out choice.  Best avoided.

Two other contenders at 16/1 with Ladbrokes are the Fukushima 50 and SEAL Team 6. To jog your memory, the former is the media name given to the employees of the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan who valiantly battled against leaking radiation after a tsunami hit the facility, whilst the latter is the name of the US Special Forces unit that hunted down and killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan.

No one can question the bravery of either group, but we feel the Fukushima 50 have a considerably weaker chance of taking home the award compared to SEAL Team 6 given the disaster took place over eight months ago and didn’t directly affect US lives. The marines who brought America’s Public Enemy Number 1 to justice, in contrast, look a steal at 16s and are our value punt on the market. Choosing SEAL Team 6 would be a popular choice with TIME readers and the organisers can justifiably claim that the killing of Bin Laden was an historic event with far-reaching consequences in both America and the wider world. Our advice would be to get on at 16/1 while the price lasts.  

Next in the betting at 20/1 with both Ladbrokes and William Hill is Turkey’s long-standing prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He’s the only prime minister in Turkey's history to have won three consecutive general elections (his latest in June this year), but you can bet your bottom dollar less than 1% of TIME’s readership will have heard of him, which means he has effectively no chance. 200/1 would be fairer odds.

Also in with very little chance are Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – both 25/1 with William Hill. Obama won the award in 2008 and has done nothing of note this year, whilst Clinton has done even less.

Outside the top 10 runners and riders, Rupert Murdoch looks a touch too long at 66/1 with William Hill given his newspapers' shady shenanigans have come to light this year and threaten to destroy his powerful media empire. The rest of the field are effectively no-hopers.

Recommended Bets

2pts on SEAL Team 6 to win TIME Person of the Year at 16/1 with Ladbrokes.

1pt on Arab Youth Protestors to win TIME Person of the Year at 6/1 with William Hill.

0.25pts on Rupert Murdoch to win TIME Person of the Year at 66/1 with William Hill.