Horse by horse guide to Grand National betting

AINTREE, UK - Live Odds and Score`s Joe Saumarez Smith guides you through the runners and riders for the 2010 Grand National and the betting odds available on each of them.

The ground for the Grand National is good to soft which will make this a proper test of stamina but not so much that you`re looking for a slow plodder with safe jumping who will get round in his own time. You need to find a horse that is reasonably classy and has decent form in the book – even Mon Mome who sprung a 100/1 shock last year had some decent form and was not a total surprise winner. But the key thing is you need to know the horse will stay the full four and a half miles.

The other two factors are weight and age. Last year`s top four all carried 11 stone or more (Mon Mome had exactly 11 stone) and, as a result, lots of pundits seem to have decided that a big weight is not going to be an issue this year. Over the past decade this has not been true though and my preference is always going to be for horses carrying a lower weight.

Age is also important. Seven year olds do not generally run well in the National and four of them run this year. Only four of the last 34 seven year olds who have run in the National have even completed and there has not been a seven year old winner in 70 years. Eight year olds don`t do much better and you really want a nine year old or, for preference, a 10 year old. 10 year olds have a great record in the race and they are always worth an extra look.

Unfortunately there are very few of the 40 horses you can totally write off. The Grand National has gone from being a race where there were perhaps 15 genuine contenders to a race where almost all of them have some sort of live chance.

So, here`s a horse by horse guide with the best available odds from major bookmakers. Don`t blame me when the one I label a no hoper hoses up. Also, remember to always make sure you take the best odds by using the Grand National odds comparison service.

If you`re looking for free bet offers, most bookies have taken them down for the Grand National. One who has not is Bet 365 who are also paying five places on the races. It`s definitely worth opening an account with Bet 365 if you don`t have one already.

Madison du Berlais – 50/1

Despite having top weight, I have actually had a small wager on Madison at 66/1 as he loves Aintree and is a classy horse. He could defy the stats and win this and at the huge price on offer is well worth an interest.

Mon Mome – 12/1

Ran a cracking race to finish third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup which saw his odds shortened from 50/1 to 16/1 and he has been supported since. Obviously knows how to win the race but he carries a lot more weight than when he won and last year`s race was very slow indeed and may have been falsely run. At the odds on offer I can easily pass on having a bet.

Vic Venturi – 25/1

Too much weight and not a proven stayer. Not on my shortlist.

Black Apalachi – 16/1

Weight is the major concern but he does have the form to win this. One for the shortlist.

Joe Lively – 80/1

Held by several rivals on his form this season and hard to see him winning this.

Don`t Push It – 25/1

Tony McCoy`s decision to ride Don`t Push It is a hint in itself but I have a feeling he`s just not quite good enough. I suspect he will go well but fade into seventh or eighth.

Comply or Die – 20/1

Second last year and trained for the race. With my concerns about the way last year`s race was run I would say 20/1 is only fair value.

Tricky Trickster - 16/1

Ninth in the Gold Cup, beaten 106 lengths, but the National has always been the target for Tricky Trickster. But he`s a seven year old so that is best reason to steer well clear. His odds are also a lot shorter than they should be as he is trained by Paul Nicholls.

Niche Market – 16/1

Short in the betting on what he has achieved and his jockey is also a concern. Not one I like much.

Made in Taipan – 200/1

Seems to run his best races in Ireland, which is not a great trait at Aintree. Hard to see him staying three miles, let alone four and a half.

Dream Alliance – 40/1

If it starts to pour two hours before the race then you want to be on Dream Alliance as he loves heavy ground. But otherwise probably best left alone.

Cloudy Lane – 40/1

A class horse but seems to be out of form this season. 10 years old now so the right profile for the race but it`s hard to make a strong case on all the evidence we have seen recently.

Nozic – 100/1

Another one who could be worth backing if the rain comes but otherwise best left alone.

My Will – 40/1

Not won a race since 2006 and would take a minor miracle to win here.

Pablo du Charmil – 150/1

All his best form over much shorter distances and fell last time out. Bad luck if you have this one in the sweepstake.

Ballyholland - 33/1

Hard to assess the strength of his Irish form and looks a bit short in the betting on what he has achieved. Interesting contender and had place possibilities.

Backstage – 25/1

Only an eight year old, which is a negative, but will be suited by the ground (he wouldn`t want it any softer though) and an interesting outsider. Trained with the National in mind so could improve markedly.

Beat The Boys – 150/1

Probably won`t get round as stamina is a major doubt. Hard to be enthusiastic about this one.

Preists Leap – 150/1

Would like it much softer and is now a real plodder. Probably will get round in his own time but highly unlikely to be competitive.

Snowy Morning – 16/1

I like Snowy Morning a lot. He has form in this race (third in 2008), is the right age and has been dropped 9lb from last year, which gives him a really strong chance. His form this season has been decent and he is a big price at 16/1. One of three horses I have backed.

Can`t Buy Time – 33/1

Negative vibes from the stable and while he is in with a squeak I wouldn`t say this was his year. Probably a leading contender in 2012.

Big Fella Thanks – 8/1

Holds a favourite`s chance but his odds are pretty short given what he has achieved and his age is against him. Plenty of others at bigger prices make more appeal.

State of Play – 20/1

I just don`t get why State of Play is a 20/1 shot. He finished fourth last year, is carrying 5lb less, has his chosen ground conditions, loves going left handed and has been prepared specially for this race. Trainer Evan Williams say he is very happy with State of Play`s fitness and he looks perfectly suited for the race. He carries the majority of my cash.

Character Building – 20/1

Has the right profile for this race but his form this season has been below par and he`s pretty short in the betting on the basis of that. Definite place possibilities but may find two or three too good.

Ellerslie George – 100/1

Held on form by quite a lot of rivals. Probably just not good enough and will plod round to finish third last.

Eric`s Charm – 50/1

A nice, hard-battling horse but probably a bit too old now and other`s preferred.

King John`s Castle – 33/1

Well supported from 66/1 into 33/1 in recent days and could be anything. His form doesn`t look good enough but he could well be one of those surprise Irish improvers and I wouldn`t want to lay this one at big prices. A very interesting outsider.

Conna Castle – 150/1

Looks outclassed and would be no surprise to see Conna Castle lose his jockey early on. One for optimists only.

Ballyfitz – 66/1

Right age but inconsistent and does tend to hit his fences, which is not good over the National course. 66/1 is a big price but everything will need to go in his favour for him to even place.

Ollie Magern – 150/1

Really top class in his day but a bit long in the tooth now. Quirky type who racing geeks would love to see do well but realistically this is more like a fun day out for Ollie.

Arbor Surpreme – 18/1

Been well supported in the run up to the race but is only eight, jumps sketchily and also is a bit of a thinker. If all goes right then he could do well but my inclination is that he`s one to avoid.

Maljimar – 33/1

Third in the cross country race at Cheltenham but this looks a much tougher contest. Should jump round but probably lacks required speed to be a contender.

The Package – 14/1

Had a tough race at Cheltenham when beaten a head in the the three and a half mile handicap, a result that was financially painful for me. Very obvious chances but hard to think that the Cheltenham exertions won`t have taken a lot out of him and slight feeling this might be an afterthought. The odds are not generous enough for me to have a bet.

Piraya – 150/1

Too young and would like it softer. Not an attractive betting proposition.

Irish Raptor – 33/1

Has Aintree form (won at the meeting last year) but hard to get excited on what he has shown this year. Others preferred.

Palypso de Creek – 66/1

The commentator`s least favourite horse, along with Pablo du Charmil (let`s hope they both lead for the first circuit). Best form on softer ground and couldn`t back him with counterfeit at these odds.

Hello Bud – 50/1

Ghastly name and probably too old to be a contender.

Flintoff – 66/1

Named after the boozy cricketer, he is trained by Venetia Williams, who is always capable of training a horse to perfection. Doesn`t look like a National horse to me.

Cerium - 66/1

Cerium has just squeaked into the race at the bottom of the handicap. Very little form to suggest he could be a contender and odds look correct.

Royal Rosa - 100/1

Interesting that trainer Howard Johnson took out Abbeybraney in favour of Royal Rosa, which might suggest he will run a bigger race than the odds suggest. The jockey, Ryan Mania, has an excellent name for newspaper headlines but I suspect the sub-editors won`t be getting their dream result.

Don`t forget to open an account with Bet 365