2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and Betting Preview: Union Rags edges it ahead of Algorithms

LOUISVILLE, KY – The 2012 Kentucky Derby may not be for another 80 days, but the betting on it is starting to heat up ahead of the clash between Union Rags and Algorithms in the Grade Two Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park next Sunday.

398 three-year-olds were nominated for the Triple Crown races this season, the first of which is the Kentucky Derby on May 5, which is known as ‘The Run for the Roses’ and is run over 10 furlongs on the dirt at Churchill Downs.

Todd Pletcher is the trainer with the most nominees at 32, but the current favourite is Union Rags at 10/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral, who is trained by Michael Matz in Maryland. Matz had been most famous for surviving United Airlines Flight 232 before training Barbaro to win the Kentucky Derby in 2006. Matz’ last runner in the Derby came in 2008 with Visionaire, who finished 12th in Big Brown’s race at 25/1, but he will have higher hopes for Union Rags.

Union Rags was on the top two-year-olds last year, winning the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park (a race won by Uncle Mo in 2010), and then finishing second to Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over eight and a half furlongs. Union Rags was well-fancied on that day at 3/1, but had a wide trip after he broke from gate 10. Yes, his bubble burst and he is not going to be the next Secretariat, but he has scope for progression as a three-year-old colt and punters should not give up on him just yet. Julien Leparoux will be partnering him.

Javier Castellano, who has won the Preakness but has never won the Kentucky Derby before, has given up the ride on Union Rags to stay with Algorithms. Algorithms is on offer at a high of 12/1 with Coral and Pletcher took the race in 2010 with Super Saver, although he was forced to scratch hot favourite Uncle Mo last year the day before the race. Algorithms is a son of Bernardini who beat the odds-on Hansen in the Holy Bull Stakes last month, but Castellano will be crossing his fingers that he has picked the right three-year-old to sit on ahead of the Fountain of Youth Stakes next weekend.

El Padrino is a 20/1 shot with Coral, and comes from the same stable as Algorithms. His first race around two bends as a juvenile was promising last November, finishing third to O’Prado Again. He won well on his reappearance as a three-year-old at Gulfstream and he could well go on to better things having cost $210,000 as a yearling. Nevertheless, it is a worry that he has already been ‘rejected’ by Castellano.

At 20/1 with Ladbrokes is Wrote, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf under British jockey Ryan Moore for top trainer Aidan O’Brien. Even though the Ballydoyle trainer sent over Master of Hounds to finish fifth in the race last year, he has gone on record saying that Wrote could be saved for the European Classics, such as the Irish 2000 Guineas.

The grey Hansen is 20/1 but most punters think that he has already had his moment in the sun. The last horse to win the Juvenile and follow up in the Derby was Street Sense in 2007.

Gemologist is owned by WinStar Farm, who colours were carried to victory at Churchill Downs two years ago, so he is certainly one to have on the radar at 25/1 with bet365.

Other contenders at this early stage are Godolphin’s Alpha, who is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who is at 33/1 with Coral along with Bob Baffert’s Liaison. Both horses are very well bred and have the scope to shorten in the betting if they can confirm on their 2012 form.

The Kentucky Derby is on Saturday 5 May.

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