2012 Betfair Denman Chase: Long Run bids for first win of the season

NEWBURY, UK - The Denman Chase, formerly known as the Aon Chase, is one of a handful of Cheltenham Gold Cup trials staged in the lead-up to the Festival in March. It is run over three miles, with 18 fences to be jumped, and this year features the reigning Gold Cup hero Long Run.

The race has been monopolised in recent years by trainer Paul Nicholls, and it is a fitting tribute to Denman that the race is named after him in the season that he was retired. Denman (pictured) won five of his seven starts at Newbury, which included two Hennessy Gold Cups and a win in this very race, although he was beaten in it two years ago when sent off as a red hot 1/6 favourite.

The favourite to win this year is Long Run, who beat both Denman and Kauto Star in last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup and can be backed at 1/2 (bet £100 to win £50 profit) with Bet Victor and Sky Bet for the race. It is scary to think that the French import is only seven-years-old, so theoretically he could still have a number of Gold Cups to follow, although the son of Cadoudal has been well-beaten in two starts this season. Despite being sent off as a hot favourite on both occasions, Long Run was beaten by Kauto Star in both the Betfair Chase at Haydock and the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park, suggesting either that the Gold Cup win has taken something out of the horse, or that Kauto Star is simply a freak of nature.

Long Run has never raced at Newbury before, which may concern some punters, although he began his career at Auteuil in Paris, which is a similar configuration to Newbury, a flat left-handed track. He also has to give weight to all of his five rivals today, and his jockey Sam Waley-Cohen is unable to claim his usual 5lb, although he does know the horse exceptionally well, and even rode him in Paris over hurdles. His fan club can back him at 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Sporting Bet to win a second Gold Cup next month, with Kauto Star behind him at 4/1 with Boylesports.

The main danger to Long Run opening his account for the 2011/12 season is the Paul Nicholls-trained What A Friend, who is 13/2 with Stan James to win the race. He is perhaps most famous for being owned by Manchester United coach Sir Alex Ferguson, but the nine-year-old seems to like Newbury, having finished a close second to Noland in this race last year and also finishing second to Denman in the 2009 Hennessy. Nicholls would obviously love to win this race and it could prove telling that What A Friend gets 10lb from Long Run, who has not been at his best this season, making a number of mistakes at his fences.

Third in the betting is Burton Port at 9/1 with Blue Square, who actually beat the aforementioned Denman the last time he was seen in public, when he was unlucky to come second to Diamond Harry in the 2010 Hennessy. His record over fences reads 1111212, so many will be tempted to back him with Barry Geraghty doing the steering once again, but he has been off the track for more than a year, so it would come as a big shock if he could topple stable-mate Long Run. Looking further ahead, he is 33/1 to win the Gold Cup and 33/1 with Ladbrokes to win Henderson his first Grand National in April.

Tidal Bay can be a bit hit-and-miss, but he is put in at 9/1 with bet365 and has the added bonus of Ruby Walsh on board. He may be 11-years-old, but he is still capable, as he showed when finishing second to Midnight Chase in the Argento last month. Almost all of the ex-Howard Johnson horses have improved for a change of scenery, but surely he will at best finish in the first three.

The Giant Bolster is gallant and may make the running, but he is not given much of a chance by Ladbrokes at 14/1. He is rated 22lb inferior to Long Run, but if he puts in a good round of jumping than connections will almost be forced to throw him into the Gold Cup. He is currently a 66/1 shot with William Hill to win the Gold Cup.

The outsider is Chapel House at 500/1 with Stan James and Bet Victor but jockey Wayne Kavanagh is going to struggle to even get the gelding over the finishing line for the minor prize-money.

The Denman Chase is due off at 12.40pm on Friday 17 February and is live on Channel 4.

2012 Denman Chase Betting Odds