2012 Lightning Stakes Odds and Betting Preview: Black Caviar looks unstoppable, despite drop in trip

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - Black Caviar, considered by many to be the best thoroughbred racehorse in the world, puts her unbeaten record on the line today when she faces eight rivals at Flemington in the Group One Coolmore Lightning Stakes over 1000 metres (five furlongs).

The daughter of Bel Esprit was seen just last weekend cantering to victory in the Group One C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield over 1400 metres, winning as a 1/20 favourite should (by over three lengths), leading many European horse-racing pundits to speculate about a trip to Dubai and even Ascot in June to take on the unbeaten Frankel over 1600 metres. However connections of Black Caviar have decided to drop her back in trip to 1000 metres for the Lightning Stakes, a race she won last year to join a list of famous winners that includes superstar sprinter Choisir.

Forget comparisons with Choisir though, the Australian racing public believe that Black Caviar is in a league of her own, and could be one of the greats. Black Caviar has won 18 races in 18 racecourse appearances, and on paper this looks like a penalty kick. If she can go 19-19 in the Lightning Stakes, she will equal the Australasian record which currently belongs to Gloaming and Desert Gold. Punters can back Black Caviar at 1/8 (bet $80 to win just $10 profit) with William Hill to win at Flemington today, and if she does so she will move ahead of Eclipse and join Peppers Pride on the list of undefeated winners, although she has some way to go to get to Kinsem’s 54 straight wins.

According to research carried out by handicapper Craig Tompson, of 120 horses to drop back in trip from seven furlongs to five furlongs in a week in the previous four years, only one horse managed to do it successfully. Black Caviar’s price of 1/8 reflects that she faces a stiff task, and if she was to get beaten, her legions of fans should not be too disappointed. However a win would set up a hunt for a $1 million bonus if she can win three races that make up the Global Sprint Challenge. Assuming she swerves a trip to Japan, the next leg could well be the Dubai Golden Shaheen on Saturday 31 March over 1200 metres.

The six-year-old’s chief adversary is Hay List, who is on offer at 7/1 with William Hill and is trained by John McNair. Hay List has been popular in the local betting market and he is believed to be the second best sprinter in the world behind Black Caviar. Hay List has taken on Black Caviar four times in his career, but has never once got within two lengths of her. If ever he is to turn the tables, surely Flemington will be it, although it is going to be tough after spending several months on the sidelines. He finished second in this race last year though and Glyn Schofield renews his association with the speedy sprinter.

Foxwedge is a 14/1 shot, and found only Sepoy too good for him in the Coolmore Stud Stakes last year. Connections were hoping that the four-year-old would be able to go for the Lightning Stakes - Newmarket Handicap double without having to face Black Caviar, but despite her unexpected presence it looks like they are retaining the original plan. The son of Fastneck Rock breaks from gate nine and could well beat Hay List for second place, but expect to see him pick up a major race in the coming weeks when Black Caviar is shipped abroad.

Buffering, Temple Of Boom and Lone Rock are all at 40/1 and can be easily discounted, and then Metallurgical, Phelan Ready and Secret Flyer are all available at 200/1 or bigger on Betfair.

The Lightning Stakes is off at 4.10pm on Saturday 18 February, which is 5.10am in the UK. It is worth keeping an eye on Helmet in the race which directly precedes the feature, which is a Group Three contest over 1400 metres.