Why are Newcastle doing so well?

Like most fans of football, I was hoping Newcastle would be involved in a relegation scrap this season. The club has been run by cabal of charlatans for as long as I can remember (sacking Sir Bobby Robson in 2004 was almost a crime) and nothing would have given me greater pleasure than to see Mike Ashley and his poker-loving chums plying their trade in the Championship once again.

But it hasn’t worked out that way. Instead of heading for the trapdoor after mercilessly getting rid of manager Chris Hughton and best players Andy Carroll, Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton in recent times, the Magpies have gone on an improbable run this season – winning seven and drawing four out of their 11 Premier League games to date.

Along with money-bags Manchester City, Newcastle remain the only unbeaten side in the Premiership and currently lie in 3rd place with more than a quarter of the season already gone. They are currently three points ahead of Chelsea and six points ahead of Arsenal and Liverpool.

Newcastle spent very little money in the summer and got rid of most of their best players…they have what is widely regarded as a very average squad…so how on earth are they doing so well?

Smart transfer policy

Ask any Geordie about Newcastle’s recent transfer deals and they’ll give you a big thumbs up. Selling Carroll for £35m last January looked like a good bit of business at the time; now it looks positively inspired. Ba and Cabaye were excellent – and cheap – purchases for the Magpies in the summer and the word on the street is that Newcastle have one of the best scouting systems in the Premier League right now. The club’s reach is particularly strong in France, which is increasingly the place to go for highly technical, skilled players at bargain prices.

New style of football

Last season Newcastle resembled a bunch of hardened journeymen who were difficult to beat. This season they’ve built on that solidness and added in an attractive, high-possession style of football. Alan Pardew is obsessed with player stats and the one he cherishes the most is how often a player successfully completes a pass. If it works for Barcelona, why can’t it work for humble Newcastle is the logic? So far it seems to be working.

No egos allowed

Carroll, Nolan and Barton were undoubtedly big egos in the dressing room. Moving them on has allowed for a more cohesive team-spirit based on collective responsibility, which seems to be paying dividends. This is no mean feat as Newcastle football teams have in the past often come across as a bunch of overpaid prima donnas.  

Consistent selection policy

Anyone who manages a fantasy football side will know that all four of Newcastle’s 1st-choice defenders are right at the top of the table in terms of points accumulated. Aside from playing well and letting in very few goals, the Taylors, Coloccini and Simpson have played together in every single Premier League game this season (out of a possible combined 3,960 minutes on the pitch, they have played together 3,946 minutes) and have let in a division-best eight goals from 11 games.  It’s this consistent team selection in defence and other areas of the pitch that is allowing Newcastle to play as a team and be more than the sum of its parts.

Good management skills

When Chris Hughton was sacked half-way through last season even though he’d done a very good job at Newcastle, I think it’s fair to say most people didn’t want new boss Alan Pardew to succeed at St James’ Park. The appointment struck most football observers as a cynical, money-driven one and appeared to be more about chairman Ashley bringing in one of his buddies as opposed to a bona-fide footballing decision. After all, Pardew’s managerial career up to that point had hardly been a glittering one. He’d been sacked by West Ham, Charlton and Southampton and was almost a forgotten man.

No one can deny though that the Londoner is doing a sterling job at Newcastle right now. To take a club that is notoriously difficult – some say impossible – to manage and start the season like Newcastle have is testament to the manager’s ability. Whether he can keep it up is another matter, but for the time being Pardew deserves great credit for the excellent job he’s doing.

Relatively easy start to the season

They say there are no easy games in the Premier League, but clearly you would much rather play Wigan than Manchester United. Newcastle have only faced two top 6 sides to date (Arsenal and Tottenham; neither of which they beat) and I think it’s a fair to say their credentials haven’t been fully tested yet. After all, Blackpool had a cracking start to their season last year and look where they ended up. The Magpies face Manchester City at Eastlands in their next fixture, followed by Manchester United then Chelsea, so we’ll see soon enough if they are real contenders for a Champions League spot.

Add all those factors together and I think you're approaching a reasonable answer to why Newcastle are doing so well.

Where will they finish?

My best guess would be 7th. The big six of Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool look too entrenched to easily dislodge but the rest of the Premier League look eminently beatable. The bookies broadly agree with this viewpoint as Newcastle are 16/1 with Ladbrokes to finish in the Top 4, yet as low as 11/10 with Bet365 to finish top outside the Big 6.

Either way things are looking pretty rosy for Newcastle United football club right now. They’ve got oodles of money in the bank from the Carroll deal, 50,000+ fans coming through the gate every fortnight, and for the first time in a little while they’re not universally despised by the football community.

The difficulty will come when supporters get used to this level of success and start demanding big-name players in the January transfer window to push the club on even further. That would be a threat to the no-ego team spirit built up under Pardew, but if there’s any club in the world which you can implicitly trust to muck everything up it’s Newcastle. It’s in their genes.