2011 FIFA Ballon D'Or Odds and Betting Preview: Lionel Messi strong favourite to join Cruyff, Platini & van Basten on three

ZURICH, SWITZERLAND - Lionel Messi was an uneasy favourite in the betting going into last year’s FIFA Ballon D’Or ceremony after a below-par showing at the World Cup, but this time around the Argentine is a strong odds-on favourite with the bookmakers to clinch a third Ballon D’Or on the bounce, and in doing so join Johan Cruyff, Michel Platini and Marco van Basten.

Lionel Messi has dazzled football fans once again throughout 2011, sealing his fifth La Liga title with Barcelona in addition to a third Champions League. Messi is best-priced at 1/14 with Stan James to win the Ballon D’Or tonight in Zurich, in what looks more like a one-horse race rather than a three-horse race. Stan James is the only firm still taking bets ahead of tonight, but last week Messi had been 1/14 with Paddy Power as well as 1/16 with Victor Chandler and Sporting Bet. Punters who took odds of 1/8 with Ladbrokes in December look to be on to a winner if the recent betting is anything to go by.

It is staggering to think that Messi is still just 24-years-old, and already he has achieved so much with his beloved Barcelona, even before reaching the supposed peak of his physical powers. In 2011 he netted 59 goals in a whopping 70 matches, and if that was not good enough, he also provided a remarkable 37 assists. And no, he does not just produce the goods against the weak La Liga sides or the Qatari team in the Club World Cup, he also has a habit of scoring in Clasicos and Champions League Finals. Last year Messi took the UEFA Man of the Match award in Wembley for his performance against Manchester United, and also took the Golden Boot in the elite competition.

Messi is well on his way to yet another Golden Boot in the Champions League, sitting top of the tree with Bayern’s Mario Gomez on six goals, with more goals set to come against Bayer Leverkusen. The little maestro is a 4/5 poke with Betfred to finish top goalscorer in the Champions League, which could be a better bet than the 1/14 to win another Ballon D’Or tonight. With Barcelona just 13/8 with bet365 to win the competition in May, it will be interesting to see what price Messi is quoted at to win a fourth Ballon D’or in 2012. After his second, in which Iniesta was well-backed by punters, he was immediately installed as a 11/8 shot by bet365, which now looks a stunning price.

The second favourite in the market is Cristiano Ronaldo, who is on offer at 9/1 with Stan James this morning. The Portuguese playmaker would have more Ballon d’Ors to his name if it had not been for Messi, but he looks a long-shot to upset the favourite tonight in Zurich. With 60 goals in 60 games in 2011, it does not take an expert mathematician to work out that his goals per game ratio is higher than Messi’s, but his Real Madrid side only bagged the Copa del Rey last season. Ronaldo did win the Pichichi Trophy ahead of Messi with 41 goals (according to Marca), although we do not think that he has to make space in his trophy cabinet just yet.

The outsider of the three stars is Xavi Hernandez, who looks to have no chance at 16/1 with Stan James. Back in November Xavi had been a 33/1 shot with the same firm, so some punters may have just been availing themselves of possible ‘value’ in an uninspiring market. He has finished third for two years running and looks set to fill that position once again, and it remains to be seen if the 31-year-old ever scoops the award.

In the Manager of the Year market, Josep Guardiola looks a ‘banker’ at 1/25 with Stan James, although he was as long as 1/3 just last month with the same firm. His Barcelona side have dominated affairs in both Spain and Europe, and even bagged the Club World Cup last month after winning the Clasico. The other ‘runners’ are Sir Alex Ferguson, 8/1 with Stan James, and Jose Mourinho, who can be backed at 20/1 after a poor season by his high standards.

The decision will be made at 7pm local time on Monday 9 January, which is 6pm in the UK. Punters can follow the ceremony on the France Football Facebook page throughout today (sadly only in French!).

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