2011 X Factor Week Six Betting Update: Frankie Cocozza goes, wild card could be Amelia Lily

LONDON, UK - Frankie Cocozza was today booted out of the X Factor in a sensational turn of events, with many sources suggesting he had ‘broken the rules of conduct’. 

This morning he had been the 66/1 outsider to win the competition with totesport and Coral, but his off the screen antics have landed him in trouble and he is now set to pursue a solo career in the music industry without the X Factor producers. This site had speculated that producers were doing their best to help him into the final eight so he could make the live tour next year, but even that looks unlikely after today’s tabloid storm. Whether it was down to cocaine or not is not for us to speculate, but Frankie Cocozza’s exit has had a major impact on the X Factor betting markets.

Frankie looked a ‘good thing’ to leave last weekend, as he was priced-up at 13/10 with bet365 to be the next eliminated and he was long odds-on with bwin to fall foul of the double elimination. Following another remarkable betting upset, Frankie avoided the chop and was duly installed at 10/11 with Ladbrokes to be the tenth act eliminated this weekend.

If you had an outright bet on Frankie to win the competition with William Hill, bet365 or Paddy Power, your bet will be refunded by your bookmaker.

Now that Frankie has left on his own accord, the new favourite to be axed this weekend is Kitty Brucknell, who slipped into the bottom three last weekend. She looks to have absolutely no chance of winning the competition at 50/1 with Sky Bet, and could be an outstanding wager at 6/5 with Betfred to go on Sunday night. Kitty is as short as 10/11 with Boylesports for the chop, but with more twists and turns in store later this week it would be inadvisable to stick the mortgage on her.

X Factor betting pundits are now speculating that either one already-eliminated act will be reinstated to the show, or else the show will continue as normal but will reach a blunt conclusion with a two-way final instead of the standard three-way final showdown before Christmas. Either way, the X Factor producers have a serious dilemma on their hands, risk losing credibility by restoring an act that already has no voting confidence from the public, or risk harming viewer ratings during the final in December. A two-way final would give less room for advertising breaks, which are the bread and butter of Simon Cowell’s X Factor, and from a betting point of view it would probably be a foregone conclusion.

If we take the first hypothesis, we can safely assume that the reinstated act will have no chance of winning the competition? Or can they? Could viewers engineer a ‘protest vote’ that hammers the final nail in the X Factor coffin? It is certainly worth considering.

Frankie is 559/1 to win, but he can still be opposed at 879/1 on Betfair if the stories really are to be believed. The market mover has been Amelia Lily, who we have not seen for some time, but is now 59/1 on Betfair to win X Factor, having been matched at 999/1 for £43 on the same betting exchange, meaning that at least one professional ‘layer’ will be having sleepless nights this week. Amelia Lily did not get the chance to face the public vote, and she could attract plenty of sympathy if she returns, which is a 4/1 poke with high street bookmaker Ladbrokes.

Who else could be in line for a shock return to our X Factor screens? Johnny Robinson is popular and is 6/4 with Ladbrokes to return, but from what we saw last weekend it appeared as if producers were done with Johnny, content that he had made the money-spinning live tour. Amelia would be a bolder pick in our eyes, and Johnny does not have many friends in the Betfair win market at 149/1.

The Risk are 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Sophie Habibis is a long-shot at 16/1 with the same firm, but both acts would harm the credibility of the show in our opinion.

Going back to more familiar waters, Marcus Collins was eased slightly in the betting from 9/4 favourite this morning out a touch to 11/4 with bet365. Support has come in again for Irish sensation Janet Devlin, who is best-priced at 10/3 from 7/2 with Boylesports to win X Factor. Perhaps producers have something big in store for her this weekend, or perhaps punters just find the other singers uninspiring.

The second-favourite behind Kitty to be axed this Sunday is girl group Little Mix, who are 9/2 with Coral to go.

The X Factor resumes on Saturday 12 November at 8.15pm GMT on ITV1 and should be compelling viewing, despite the farcical turn of recent events.

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